Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 108,897
2 South Dakota 97,202
3 Iowa 77,554
4 Wisconsin 75,753
5 Nebraska 72,287
6 Utah 67,189
7 Montana 63,507
8 Wyoming 62,749
9 Illinois 62,257
10 Minnesota 62,224
11 Idaho 61,862
12 Kansas 58,914
13 Rhode Island 58,655
14 Tennessee 57,311
15 Indiana 57,097
16 Arkansas 56,638
17 Mississippi 55,417
18 Missouri 55,060
19 Alabama 55,041
20 Nevada 54,788
21 Oklahoma 54,710
22 Louisiana 54,018
23 New Mexico 51,548
24 Alaska 50,368
25 Arizona 50,046
26 Florida 49,263
27 Texas 46,358
28 Kentucky 45,834
29 Colorado 45,575
30 Georgia 45,501
31 South Carolina 45,079
32 Michigan 42,668
33 New Jersey 41,639
34 Delaware 40,987
35 Ohio 40,638
36 North Carolina 37,663
37 Massachusetts 37,264
38 New York 36,528
39 Connecticut 35,821
40 Maryland 35,620
41 California 34,721
42 Pennsylvania 33,106
43 District of Columbia 32,782
44 West Virginia 30,687
45 Virginia 29,881
46 Puerto Rico 28,270
47 Washington 24,360
48 Oregon 20,033
49 New Hampshire 18,217
50 Hawaii 13,123
51 Maine 9,929
52 Vermont 8,037

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Alaska 1,125
2 Indiana 1,099
3 Oklahoma 1,047
4 Minnesota 1,018
5 South Dakota 995
6 Utah 951
7 Nevada 913
8 Nebraska 882
9 Delaware 840
10 Wisconsin 832
11 New Mexico 829
12 Montana 821
13 North Dakota 820
14 Pennsylvania 812
15 Ohio 803
16 Colorado 791
17 Massachusetts 770
18 Kentucky 740
19 Arizona 739
20 West Virginia 738
21 Arkansas 730
22 Illinois 728
23 Wyoming 713
24 Kansas 689
25 Idaho 684
26 Missouri 673
27 Mississippi 660
28 California 658
29 Alabama 647
30 New Jersey 638
31 Iowa 630
32 South Carolina 585
33 Tennessee 571
34 New York 543
35 Maryland 531
36 North Carolina 529
37 Michigan 525
38 Louisiana 505
39 District of Columbia 459
40 New Hampshire 452
41 Florida 450
42 Rhode Island 445
43 Georgia 412
44 Virginia 412
45 Oregon 411
46 Texas 386
47 Puerto Rico 267
48 Washington 235
49 Vermont 199
50 Maine 196
51 Connecticut 143
52 Hawaii 76

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,950
2 New York 1,776
3 Massachusetts 1,596
4 Connecticut 1,443
5 Louisiana 1,416
6 North Dakota 1,337
7 Rhode Island 1,333
8 Mississippi 1,330
9 South Dakota 1,254
10 Illinois 1,114
11 Michigan 1,032
12 District of Columbia 987
13 Arizona 954
14 Indiana 927
15 Georgia 896
16 Florida 892
17 Pennsylvania 889
18 South Carolina 886
19 Arkansas 881
20 Iowa 861
21 New Mexico 834
22 Delaware 814
23 Maryland 801
24 Texas 799
25 Alabama 793
26 Nevada 752
27 Missouri 720
28 Minnesota 716
29 Tennessee 715
30 Montana 688
31 Wisconsin 679
32 Nebraska 627
33 Kansas 613
34 Colorado 596
35 Ohio 595
36 Idaho 581
37 North Carolina 531
38 California 504
39 Kentucky 503
40 Virginia 492
41 Oklahoma 479
42 West Virginia 467
43 Wyoming 444
44 New Hampshire 414
45 Washington 402
46 Puerto Rico 372
47 Utah 292
48 Oregon 244
49 Alaska 185
50 Hawaii 183
51 Maine 168
52 Vermont 126

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 South Dakota 29
2 North Dakota 15
3 Illinois 12
4 Iowa 12
5 Kansas 12
6 New Mexico 12
7 Arkansas 11
8 Minnesota 11
9 Indiana 10
10 Wisconsin 10
11 Michigan 9
12 Mississippi 9
13 Pennsylvania 9
14 West Virginia 9
15 Alabama 7
16 Missouri 7
17 Tennessee 7
18 Massachusetts 6
19 Nebraska 6
20 Nevada 6
21 South Carolina 6
22 Texas 6
23 Alaska 5
24 Arizona 5
25 Colorado 5
26 Ohio 5
27 Oklahoma 5
28 Delaware 4
29 Florida 4
30 Georgia 4
31 Kentucky 4
32 Louisiana 4
33 Maryland 4
34 Montana 4
35 New Hampshire 4
36 New Jersey 4
37 Oregon 4
38 Rhode Island 4
39 Connecticut 3
40 Hawaii 3
41 Idaho 3
42 New York 3
43 North Carolina 3
44 Puerto Rico 3
45 California 2
46 District of Columbia 2
47 Utah 2
48 Vermont 2
49 Virginia 2
50 Maine 1
51 Washington 1
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 221,086 1 99
Norton Kansas 209,289 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 203,014 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 199,286 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 197,251 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 72,151 504 83
Richland South Carolina 51,729 1321 57
York South Carolina 38,579 2048 34
Orange California 28,080 2539 19
Pierce Washington 21,826 2762 12

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 5,952 3 99
Hancock Georgia 5,558 4 99
Gregory South Dakota 5,496 5 99
Richland South Carolina 736 1418 54
Davidson Tennessee 631 1651 47
York South Carolina 527 1879 40
Orange California 514 1911 39
Pierce Washington 366 2277 27

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons